What’s the likely timeline of the world’s temperature exceeding 1.5C?

– The world will likely exceed 1.5C between 2026 and 2042 in scenarios where emissions are not rapidly reduced, with a central estimate of between 2030 and 2032.
– The 2C threshold will likely be exceeded between 2034 and 2052 in the highest emissions scenario, with a median year of 2043.
– In a scenario of modest mitigation – where emissions remain close to current levels – the 2C threshold would be exceeded between 2038 and 2072, with a median of 2052.

Dr. Raj Thamotheram identifies a possible timeline in this note:

Are you an ESG “cynic”, “apologist” or “fence sitter”? Before deciding, you might like to consider the latest climate modeling. Carbon Brief is very authoritative.

The world will likely exceed 1.5C between 2026 and 2042 in scenarios where emissions are not rapidly reduced, with a central estimate of between 2030 and 2032. The 2C threshold will likely be exceeded between 2034 and 2052 in the highest emissions scenario, with a median year of 2043. In a scenario of modest mitigation – where emissions remain close to current levels – the 2C threshold would be exceeded between 2038 and 2072, with a median of 2052.

Many of us used to talk about “what kind of world would we passing on”. That’s still true but this framing needs to be updated? How old do you expect to be when the world crosses the 1.5C & 2C mark?

And here is an excerpt from Sasja Beslik’s newsletter:

The study I’m referring to is entitled A Societal Transformation Scenario for Staying Below 1.5°C, and even if you just glance over the summary, you sort of need to take a walk to get in touch with reality.

It’s a comprehensive BS detecting study. It takes a completely different route to explain what they see as the core challenge. Figuratively speaking, the world is currently driving in a straight line of ever-increasing demand and production, simply hoping that, by the time the road ends, a bridge will have been built.

What is being ignored is the exits from this road. And even if the technologies work – and there is a bridge – they will not come without consequences: Even the most accepted geoengineering options, such as using Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) and large-scale monoculture afforestation, would lead to soil degradation, biodiversity loss and ecosystem destruction and would fuel conflicts over land, including human rights violation.

In short, the current debate is almost entirely around technological change and does not take into account the huge potential of societal and economic change. The authors of the study present a Societal Transition Scenario (STS), which is based on a change in the way society organises production and consumption. This change includes not only technological progress but also changes in governance, culture and individual behaviour.

The STS is a first draft of a climate mitigation scenario depicting an alternative future, an outline that must be underpinned by further scientific research, practical knowledge and a spirit of confidence that reshaping society to the benefit of all people and the environment is possible. It is a good and insightful read.